Israel v. Iran: A War That Could Wreck the Middle East

       How much more Israeli military aggression can Iran and other potential belligerents take? Israel's daily bombing raids in Syria has become the worst loosely guarded secret by most western media outlets. Without any declaration of war, Israel has avoided condemnation from any of the world powers. They've been on a militaristic mission to seek out and destroy every Iranian entity with any influence in Syria. Their strongest and most able rival, being Hezbollah, now considered a terrorist organization by the US government, has been Israel's main target. Seemingly, a war between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp  (IRGC), may be inevitable. With not much regard for international law or civilian casualties, Benjamin Netanyahu and his military brass has certainly been on the war path with Bashar Al Assad's regime in Damascus, and even more so, Iranian regional influence in any part of the Middle East. The shocking government sanctioned murder of an Iranian nuclear scientist has so far been the most outrageous act of violence perpetrated by Israel's Mossad agency. The scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was targeted due to his role as a leading nuclear specialist within Iran's program. According to reports by the BBC in November of 2020, the killing was extremely sophisticated which made it obvious that Israeli special ops were most certainly behind the planned slaying. Can new US foreign leadership and perhaps the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), help slow Israel's aggressive actions? It could be the only hope the world has at avoiding a potential apocalyptic war between the regions two largest military powers.

    During Donald Trump's four years in the White House, no foreign country benefitted more then Israel. This fact cannot be debated, massive lands grabs including the Golan Heights annexation, moving the capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and more fertile land in the Jordan Valley were gifted to Israel, via Mike Pompeo and the rest of Trump's foreign policy team. And most everyone expected Russia to win the award of Trump's favorite international authoritarian regime. Of course, Iran is never completely innocent when it comes to Middle Eastern expansionism, their proxies have helped to escalate already erratic situations in Iraq, Yemen and Syria. Still, Iran has been international pariahs, especially in the United States, since student revolutionaries incited the US embassy hostage crisis in 1979. Let's remember, it was Trumpisms hatred toward the Islamic Republic that led to the scrapping of the nuclear deal reached under the Obama administration in 2015. Iran's willingness to abide by the laws set in place by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) was unexpected by most, even most of the signees of the deal. The United States and Israel needed ways to portray Iran as a sort of evil empire, repressive regime and having their own militaristic plans in place to gain more territory and influence. The easiest way to go about that was the crippling sanctions that sent the Republic into a temporary economic tailspin, now Iran has gained  a lot of experience dealing with sanctions over the years. Back in the W. Bush Adm. Iran became part of his now infamous "axis of evil" list thanks in large part to President Ahmadinejad tyrannical behavior during his time at the helm. Despite vast diplomatic improvements made under the Obama State Dept., which concluded with the now defunct nuclear pact, Trump did a complete 180, turning his back on any possible diplomacy and returning to the corner of the oil monarchies Saudi Arabia and the UAE. If there's anyone who despises Iran more than Israel it would be those kingdoms. Iran is a thorn in their side, the Houthis successful military campaigns in Yemen have shown that when it comes to battlefield tactics Iran is way ahead of the Gulf Monarchies despite the fact they lag seriously behind in weaponry and training. 

    Now I must mention what a potential conflict between Israel and Iran would have on the Palestinian cause which is still and always should be the most important aspect of any middle eastern incursions. We know the majority of the Arab world still stands behind Palestine, including Iran. One potentially dangerous scenario could be a wayward Iranian missile attack meant for an Israeli position missing its target and accidentally killing loads of Palestinian civilians. I fear the Palestinian population could wind up being in the crosshairs of this hypothetical conflict.(Like these souls haven't been through enough already.)  I can picture Hamas, who also unfairly were added to the US government's ever growing terrorist list. How can a democratically elected political party be on a list like that boggles the mind. Will the Likud party ever make that list after all its transgression and illegal assassinations? I seriously doubt that, anyhow I'm a Palestinian sympathizer first and foremost but I also tend to feel Iran has been treated extremely unfairly and seem to be easy scapegoats. Now I'll mention again as I did earlier that Iran is no angel. They have militias and proxies all over the region inciting battles, trying to expand the reach of Iranian influence and the writing is on the wall that they're working day and night to gain a nuclear weapon. Still, if all your biggest enemies had an arsenal wouldn't you feel the need to defend yourself and at least try to level the field a bit? It's naïve to think Iran would just sit and watch Israel and to another respect Saudi Arabia and UAE, using top of the line US weapons while Iran still has fleets of soviet tanks from the 70's and 80's. As for Palestine, a war between Israel and Iran couldn't really help their struggle. The collateral damage, possible heavy lose of life and a likely split in factions, whereas the more radical party Hamas would ally with Iran. The Palestinian Authority and Fatah may find their survival better suited staying neutral so they wouldn't have to fear much reprisal from the IDF as long as they stayed out of combat scenarios.

    I'd like to take this moment to breakdown some of the more stand out military weaponry and the amount of troops, jets, missiles and tanks each nation brings to the frontline. First lets look at the Zionist military machine. I'd like to give credit to GlobalFirepower.com for these numbers, Israel currently has 170,000 active military personnel as well as 465,000 reserves. Israel is ranked as the 20th strongest military in the world out of a 139 countries. Israel has access to 595 Air Force jets, fighters, bombers etc., as well as 48 attack helicopters. So when it comes to the hardware Israel has access the some of the most modern and accurate missiles in the world, as well as the US f35 fighter jet. Iran, on the other hand most certainly has strength in numbers. Iran at this moment has 520,000 active military personnel which is almost five times larger than the IDF. Adding in their 325,000 reserves and Iran has a total of 1.925 million total troop count. That is Iran's only area where they have the edge over Israel. Iran is the 13th strongest military mainly based on those numbers of active troops. Iran has 516 Air Force jets at their disposal but unlike Israel many of their jets are rustic Soviet era MiG's and Su's which at the time were top of the line fighting machines but up against Israel's arsenal of F35, F16, F18 they don't stand much of a chance with airpower. Iran does have a slight edge in homegrown natural resources, but Israel can always rely on their powerful allies to pump as much resources needed to defeat Iran. I do enjoy the occasional military history documentary where they breakdown the battling nations arsenals. Still it's only a small part of the equation, take into account Israel's extremely sophisticated missile defense system known as the (Iron Dome), lets also not forget Israel's Centurion may be the best current battle tank in the world. Iran has many surface to air missile systems and could maybe count on Russia or Turkey to sell them a few s400 systems which are the most modern and sought after in the world. Enough about military semantics, we could debate this all day. Whose military is better? Will Israel singlehandedly leave Tehran a fiery mess? Or will Iran get enough support from Syria, Lebanon(Hezbollah), and even Turkey to turn the tides and force Israel to at least a humbling stalemate. What we really want is a peaceful solution, problem is I believe the Likud government has already made up their mind and peace seems to be in rearview mirror.

   The main theme I was really looking to get across here was is there still hope at avoiding a full throttle war between two intensely powerful and influential nations? Can Joe Biden's Secretary of State Blinkin work a little diplomatic magic and get these two belligerents' to finally play nice or at least ignore each other long enough until a better deal can be reached. We've all seen over the last 4 decades or so that warfare in the 21st century is a nightmare of drones, hospital bombings, a return to trench warfare and the dreaded suicide bombings that are a nightly occurrence in places like Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. Israel's actions over the pass 4 months have been completely out of line with international law and any thoughts of bringing peace to the region. Israel has colonial, imperialistic and apartheid ideas for their weaker neighbor Palestine. That's another fact that can't really be seriously debated, the truth is in the acts. Iran as I said before also look to expand their influence but only to protect their own interest due to the amount of enemies they've made in the last 20 years. Again, I always look to Gaza and the West Bank, the two most unfortunate areas in that immense region and possibly the world. Palestine would only be a minor cog in an all out war between these two powerful nations yet could suffer as many casualties as either combatant. So what could the world do to stop this collision course? Other than getting Iran to slightly capitulate and reenter the JCPA, or somehow reign in Israel's intense aggression against Iranian and Syrian territories. Something tells me the latter more then likely won't happen, the IDF are arrogant, obsessed with their survival, even though Israel hasn't had to worry about such a thing since 1967. Israel demands they have a border with Jordan, they've made so many demands its hard to keep up. Iran on the other hand just needed some economic relief, signed what seemed to be a well thought out piece of legislation, only to have to wrecked by the Trump Administration. What a bloody shame, when it seemed for once things between the middle east's biggest combatants would settle down and some failed businessman sent his son in law and Mike Pompeo to blow the whole thing up. Well folks this one doesn't seem that it will have a happy ending. This prognosticator thinks war is inevitable, it's terrifying to say the least. But I wont grandstand, I live in the US, thousands of miles away from this land which once seemed so holy but may so sadly be reduced to a charred, fiery, field of battle.